AI Shopping Agents and the Impact of Weight-Loss Drugs: Five Structural Changes in European Retail Over the Next Decade

In June 2026, at the Shoptalk Europe conference held in Barcelona, the organizers released five predictions for the next decade of European retail. These predictions are not isolated marketing signals but reflect deep resonance in consumer behavior, technological capabilities, health trends, and supply chain logic. For the European business community, understanding these changes means reassessing competitive strategies—especially strategic priorities across four dimensions: AI infrastructure, health consumption transformation, sustainable business models, and operational efficiency.

Agentic Commerce: Can Europe Catch Up with the United States?

The most striking prediction is the rise of "agentic commerce." According to research conducted exclusively for Shoptalk by Merkle, the proportion of U.S. consumers using AI tools for shopping jumped from 37% in November 2025 to 47% in February 2026. By the end of 2025, ChatGPT had 800 million weekly active users, and OpenAI has begun migrating checkout functionality from ChatGPT into retailers' own apps. More critically, Merkle predicts that by 2030, autonomous agent-to-agent commerce will account for 10% to 25% of global B2C e-commerce, representing a potential market of approximately €1 trillion.

However, Adam Plom, Vice President of Content for Shoptalk Europe, clearly stated: "The infrastructure for agentic commerce is currently being built in the United States, and we believe Europe is six to 12 months behind." This gap poses a potential threat to the competitiveness of Europe's digital economy. Although the EU has taken the lead in legislating AI regulation with the AI Act, at the commercial application level, Europe lacks native platforms with massive user bases like OpenAI and Google. If European retailers fail to swiftly convert consumer attention to "answer engines" (such as Gemini) into transactions, they risk handing over customer data and control that rightfully belongs to European brands to U.S. tech giants.

For EU policymakers, this is a new battlefield of digital sovereignty: How to strike a balance between encouraging innovation and protecting consumers, while accelerating the development of a homegrown AI shopping agent ecosystem? Possible paths include supporting startups through "European Digital Innovation Hubs," simplifying cross-border data flow rules, and incorporating agentic commerce as a priority area in the "Digital Decade" program.

GLP-1 Drugs: The "Hidden Engine" of Consumption Structure

GLP-1 class appetite suppressants (such as semaglutide) are changing global dietary patterns. Currently, about 1% of the global population uses these drugs, and Morgan Stanley predicts this proportion could rise to 10% within the next decade, as oral formulations become widespread and prices drop, significantly expanding the user base. Studies show that users reduce food intake by an average of 8%, with categories like potato chips and desserts being hit hardest.

More noteworthy is the shift in shopping behavior: 46% of GLP-1 users have already changed their primary grocery store.Even more noteworthy is the shift in shopping behavior: 46% of GLP-1 users have already changed where they do their primary grocery shopping. This means supermarkets will be forced to adjust their shelf layouts, category management, and brand contracts. High-protein, small-pack, ready-to-eat convenient, and digestive health products will become new growth areas. At the same time, weight loss will trigger wardrobe updates, creating additional demand for clothing brands.

This trend interacts subtly with the EU's "Farm to Fork" strategy and health policies. The EU is promoting a healthier food environment, and the widespread use of GLP-1 drugs may accelerate the food industry's transformation toward reducing sugar and fat. Retailers and consumer goods companies should proactively position their product portfolios, or they will face market share loss.

Second-Hand Economy: The Battle for Brand Data Sovereignty

A joint forecast by McKinsey and The Business of Fashion predicts that the global second-hand fashion and luxury market will grow from €168 billion in 2023 to €270 billion by 2027. However, Plom points out that nearly 90% of second-hand consumption currently occurs on peer-to-peer marketplaces (such as Vinted and Depop), and the revenue and customer data generated by these transactions do not belong to the original brands.

For European retailers, this is not just a loss of sales, but also a customer relationship management vulnerability. If brands cannot participate in the second-hand economy, they will lose control over the latter half of the product lifecycle and will be unable to obtain closed-loop data for improving design and forecasting demand. Swedish H&M and French LVMH have already begun experimenting with their own second-hand platforms, but scaling up still faces logistical and trust challenges.

The EU's "Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation" and extended producer responsibility regimes are creating policy incentives for the second-hand economy. If brands establish official refurbishment and resale channels early, they can not only meet regulatory requirements but also benefit in terms of ESG ratings and consumer loyalty.

In-Store Personalization: Trading Identity for Experience and Safety

Despite the rapid growth of e-commerce, physical stores will remain the main retail channel in Europe. Shoptalk predicts that more retailers will incentivize or require consumers to present identification when entering stores. The driving forces come from three aspects: the need for attribution data on in-store media, the value creation of personalized membership programs, and consumer dissatisfaction with theft prevention measures.

A Kantar survey in Q4 2025 found that nearly half of shoppers are annoyed by locked-up merchandise, and one-third avoid relevant retailers as a result. Meanwhile, Costco maintains inventory shrinkage "far below typical retail operations" through strict access control and membership systems. This contrast suggests that trading identity verification for a more personalized and secure shopping experience may become a trend.

This creates tension with the requirements of the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Retailers must offer a clear value exchange (such as discounts or personalized recommendations) when obtaining identity information, and ensure data minimization and transparency. In the future, physical stores may become nodes for data collection and personalized services, just like online channels.

Supply Chain: From Lean to Agile, Automation Investment at a Tipping PointEuropean e-commerce revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.7%, reaching €951 billion by 2029. Meanwhile, the frequent occurrence of black swan events has prompted many companies to shift from a "just-in-time" to a "just-in-case" model, increasing safety stock. However, Shoptalk believes that the continuous rise in e-commerce order volumes and delivery density will make automation the key to long-term profitability.

Automation must be combined with demand sensing. Unilever has already reduced forecast errors and safety stock costs by updating predictions with real-time sales, weather, and social media data. This reflects the direction of upgrading supply chain competitiveness in Europe: achieving dynamic adjustments through AI and the Internet of Things, rather than relying on static long-term forecasts.

For European manufacturing and logistics industries, this is both an opportunity and a challenge. The EU is enhancing technological autonomy through the Chips Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act, but supply chain software and automation equipment are still heavily dependent on imports. Policymakers should focus on how to support local supply chain technology startups, avoiding continued reliance on external suppliers in the last mile of Industry 4.0.

Conclusion: Structural Choices for European Retail

Shoptalk's predictions are not prophecies, but trend extrapolations based on existing data. They collectively point to a core fact: European retail is at a turning point from passive response to active reinvention. Agent commerce requires Europe to quickly fill the AI infrastructure gap; GLP-1 drugs change not only waistlines but also category strategies; the second-hand economy forces brands to redefine customer relationships; physical stores must balance personalization and privacy; supply chains need to pursue both automation and flexibility.

European companies that internalize these trends into their core strategies will hold a leading position by 2036. And the EU's policy environment—from the Digital Markets Act to the Green Deal—will act as either an accelerator or a brake. The future of European retail depends on how business leaders and policymakers jointly navigate these forces.